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Water Umbra GuardianTier 3
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
2
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-12-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.4%
avg ELO -8.4 per match
expected value
42.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 990–1584
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.8% | -16.6 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
